Handicapping the NBA playoffs anyone?

[Evan702]

Sometimes picking games straight up can be rather easy so I was wondering if anyone wants to make picks against the spread. Not a contest or anything like that, but just another way to see if we know if know our sports as well as we might think that we do.

Without further ado, for tonight:

Detroit Pistons
Orlando Magic -4.5
over/under 187.0


Utah Jazz
LA Lakers -7.0
over/under 210.0


I'll go with the Pistons +4.5 and over 187.0
Magic know they can't afford to go down 3-0 and should come out hot in front of the home crowd. However, since the 2nd half of Game 4 against Philly, Detroit has been on a tear. Even if they lose I can't see it being by more than 3.

I'll also take the Lakers -7.0 and over 210.0
Bad game 1 and Coach Sloan calling his team out + kobe probably feeling the need to justify his winning the MVP= lots of points on the board. I feel the Lakers have momentum and too much talent for the Jazz at the Staples Center. I think the Lakers win by double digits here.



I know this is up kinda late considering the Pistons game is on in 1.5 hours, but hopefully some of ya'll play along and feel free to give analysis and reasoning behind your picks!

[Evan702]

All in all not a bad night. Both games went over as I figured and the Lakers covered (by double figures ;) ). Took it on the chin going with the Pistons though. I figured I'd be way off on that game when Chauncey Billups went down so early. Despite the lopsided final score, I think my pick there also would have been solid had Billups played the whole game. Ah well, injuries are part of the game. Back at it tomorrow. :strong:

[Evan702]

Getting an earlier start at it today.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics -8.5
over/under 177.0


New Orleans Hornets
San Antonio Spurs -6.5
over/under 182.0

This should be a nice bounce back game for LeBron after a dismal 2-18 performance in Game 1. Despite LeBron stinking the joint up the Cavs still only lost by 4. Better game from LeBron yet I'm still not convinced that they win game 2, but I think that they cover the 8.5 so Cleveland's my pick. With the o/u down at 177 it's almost as if the oddsmakers are daring people to take the over. Well this time I'll be their sucker. Not only did LeBron have a bad game 1, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen did too. I won't count on James, Pierce and Allen combining to go 4-36 again. I think at least one of the teams hits triple digits and I'm taking over 177.


Chris Paul has been the talk of the playoffs and IMO should have won the MVP award. San Antonio hadn't been able to do much with CP3 anyway, but maybe coming up short in the MVP voting may provide him with a little extra motivation. Spurs are a tremendous veteran team and they know they are seriously up against it now. Manu & Tony Parker just can't continue to suck as hard as they have. Hornets defense has been swarming, but I think they come back to earth for at least one night. I like the Spurs to win the game, but I'm taking New Orleans to cover 6.5. As far as the o/u 182, my head says take the under but I'm going to go with my heart and take the over. I expect it to be a close over maybe hitting 185-190. Spurs should get a boost from the home crowd and start putting the ball in the baske and I expect the Hornets to keep pace.

Anyway, that's my novel. Anyone else care to give it a stab? :wavey:

[Evan702]

Ouch!! Tough night tonight.

Well I was right; LeBron didn't go 2-18 again. He decided to drop in a whopping 6 baskets tonight. That brings him to 8-42 through the first 2 games. Good job with that amazing 19% from the field under the bright lights, "king"... :rolleyes: The bad part is I knew the 177.0 o/u was a sucker bet and I was only too willing to be the sucker. :mad:

As far as the 2nd game, it was going pretty much as I expected until like 8 & half minutes left to go in the 4th qtr. Then, hot damn, the Spurs just kicked it into high gear. At least I nailed the over 182.0...

3-1 the night before, 1-3 tonight...I do hate treading water.

Only one (NBA) game to concentrate on tomorrow, time to step it up!

[Evan702]

Well since no one seems to wanna play, I guess this can just be my sounding board to see how my theories look in print before I go play for real.

Anywayz...

LA Lakers
Utah Jazz -4.5
over/under 215.0

IMO game 3s are usually the trickiest in a 7 game series especially when a team is coming home down 0-2. The Jazz are good enough not to get swept and I do remember that they looked bad for the first two games in the series against the Rockets last year before coming home to win and eventually the series. The Jazz only lost 4 games at home all year, but one of those games was a double digit loss to the Lakers...and that was without Pau Gasol. I do hate to go against a home team in a game 3, but I think the pick here is Lakers +4.5, I might even have nerve enough to go Lakers ML.

On to the 215.0. I don't think the odds makers nudged it up enough to scare me away. Deron Williams was looking more and more aggressive offensively as game 2 went on. If he can stay out of foul trouble, one would expect Carlos Boozer to go off sooner or later. The Jazz haven't yet shown that they can slow down the Lake Show :rolleyes:. So I'm going to ride the OVER again.

[Evan702]

Pushed on the side and got creamed on the total. Thank goodness I had a good night with the NHL & AFL to bail me out. :D

[Evan702]

5-10-2008

Detroit Pistons
Orlando Magic -5.0
over/under 187.0


Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5
over/under 176.0

Perhaps the Magic have found new life after thrashing Detroit in game 3. I honestly think Orlando -5.0 is the play here. However, the uncertainty regarding Chauncey Billups makes this game a no bet for me on both the side and the total.

As I mentioned in a different post, I'm leery of game 3s. Will "King" James :rolleyes" continue to stink or will he get a boost from the home crowd? A home team only giving 1.5 in the playoffs also screams, "TRAP". I think Boston ML is the play here. As long as the officiating is questionable, I think Boston takes the decisive 3-0 lead. After game 2's pathetic offensive display, I'm sure a lot of the public's money will be on the under 176.0. I might make a small play in that direction too. However, you almost know that sooner or later one or both of these teams will explode. Hopefully it isn't tonight.

[Evan702]

Thank goodness the NHL and AFL have been solid for me this weekend and keeping me outta the red.

Another subpar day from the field for the "King" but a much better all around game than the first two. I do hate game 3s... It amazes that a team like Boston that had the best regular season record can't seem to win a road game in the playoffs. A team with the likes of Pierce, Allen, Cassell & KG shouldn't be hurting in the playoff experience department. Granted KG spent most of his time in Minny going home in the 1st round, but still... Several "sharps" that I know got burned pretty good on this one.

Orlando couldn't beat Detroit without Billups on their home floor? Stick a fork in those turkeys. Glad I didn't touch that one.

[Evan702]

Recuperating from last night...

I see some sharps are on the Jazz, but I go with La Lakers ML. Would take the points if I could have gotten at LAL +5 which is what it opened at :frustrate . Not gonna mess with the total, but if I were forced to, I'd take the under 210.5.

I'll also go with the Hornets +5.5 and take the over 187.5.

Back to bed...

[Evan702]

what an embarrassingly bad 3 day stretch. The sharps were all over the Jazz and to a lesser extent the Spurs. I guess that's why they're sharps. The Penguins were my only saving grace today.

[Evan702]

Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5
over/under 181.0

Interesting that this line opened up Cavs -7 and has shrunk to -1.5. The public is dumping heavy money on the Celts. the trend says take the home team Cavs. I'll probably buck the trend again and go with the Celts. This team won the most regular season games this year. I've gotta believe that they can pull it together on the road sooner or later. No play on the total right now.

[Evan702]

So Boston couldn't even cover the +7. Just an incredibly bad NBA streak I'm on right now. Thank goodness I've been on fire with the NHL & AFL.

It's simply incredible to me that not only can these road teams not win, they can't even cover! :frustrate

[Evan702]

well let's see what happens by following thr home team trend.

hornets -4.5

[Evan702]

Back to my winning ways in the NBA finally. This dominance by home teams ATS is simply astounding.

[Evan702]

Now the road dogs want to start covering. Orlando, Cleveland and Utah all in a row. Let's see if it'll be 4 in a row.

Hornets +7.5

Might not touch the total or might make a small play on the under 184.0

[Evan702]

Home teams have covered the first 6 games of the series. I think New Orleans has a better than average chance of winning, but i don't think that battle tested San Antonio is going to go quietly in a game 7.

Spurs +4.0
over 182.5

[Evan702]

i'll take the rusty Pistons over the tired Celts.

Pistons +4.5 and under 173.5

[Evan702]

So Boston finally loses at home. Not looking good for the guys in green. If they couldn't win in Atlanta or Cleveland I don't particularly like their chances of winning in Detroit.

On to more immediate matters, the Spurs know they blew one in game 1, but they still covered anyway. Hopefully they're fired up and I like their chances of doing the same tonight.

Spurs +6.5

[qid786]

DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTTRRRRRRROIIIIIIIIIT BAAAASKKKKKKETTBALLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!

-sorry had to represent! :hee:

[Evan702]

If this series follows the same script as their last one, the Spurs should win tonight.

Spurs -4.0

Probably overthinking it, but I'll also take the over 192.0

[Evan702]

DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTTRRRRRRROIIIIIIIIIT BAAAASKKKKKKETTBALLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!

-sorry had to represent! :hee:

I'm sooooooooo glad I don't have to hear Mason and that nonsense anymore until next season! :clap: